In 1998, KODAK had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to KODAK will happen to a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people don't even see it coming.
Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law.
So.. as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superiour and got mainstream in just a few short years.
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law.
So.. as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superiour and got mainstream in just a few short years.
It will now happen with
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE,
HEALTH,
AUTONOMOUS AND ELECTRIC CARS,
EDUCATION,
3D PRINTING,
AGRICULTURE and
JOBS.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE,
HEALTH,
AUTONOMOUS AND ELECTRIC CARS,
EDUCATION,
3D PRINTING,
AGRICULTURE and
JOBS.
Welcome to the 4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION.
Welcome to the EXPONENTIAL AGE.
SOFTWARE will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
UBER is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest TAXI COMPANY in the world.
AIRBNB is now the biggest HOTEL COMPANY in the world, although they don't own any properties.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE :
Computers have become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best GO PLAYER in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
Computers have become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best GO PLAYER in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM WATSON, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.
So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less laywyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less laywyers in the future, only specialists will remain.
WATSON already helps Doctors diagnose cancer 4 times more accurately than the human doctors.
FACEBOOK now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans.
By 2030, COMPUTERS will become more intelligent than humans.
AUTONOMOUS CARS :
In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public.
Around 2020, the entire industry will get disrupted.
You won't need to own a car anymore.
You will be able to call a car using your phone. The car will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.
You won't need to park it, and you would only have to pay for the driven distance. You can be productive while being driven. Our kids won't need to get a driver's licence nor own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars.
Subsequently we would be able to transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km.With autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million kms. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies might become bankrupt.
In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public.
Around 2020, the entire industry will get disrupted.
You won't need to own a car anymore.
You will be able to call a car using your phone. The car will show up at your location and drive you to your destination.
You won't need to park it, and you would only have to pay for the driven distance. You can be productive while being driven. Our kids won't need to get a driver's licence nor own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars.
Subsequently we would be able to transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000km.With autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million kms. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies might become bankrupt.
Traditional car companies will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
I spoke to a lot of ENGINEERS from Volkswagen and Audi. they are completely terrified of Tesla.
INSURANCE COMPANIES will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper.
Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Their car insurance business model will disappear.
REAL ESTATE will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
ELECTRIC CARS will become mainstream by 2020. Cities will become less noisy because all the cars will run on electricity.
ELECTRICITY will become incredibly cheap and clean.
SOLAR PRODUCTION has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
The price for SOLAR ENERGY will drop so much that all COAL COMPANIES will be out of business by 2025.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant WATER.
DESALINATION now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter.
We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce DRINKING WATER. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
DESALINATION now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter.
We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce DRINKING WATER. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
HEALTH:
The TRICORDER X price will be announced this year.
The TRICORDER X price will be announced this year.
There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly all diseases.
It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
3D PRINTING :
The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster.
The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster.
All major SHOE COMPANIES started 3D printing shoes.
SPARE AIRPLANE PARTS are already 3D printed in remote airports.
The SPACE STATION now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amout of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D SCANNING possibilities.
You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building.
By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
SPARE AIRPLANE PARTS are already 3D printed in remote airports.
The SPACE STATION now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amout of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3D SCANNING possibilities.
You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building.
By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES :
If you think of a niche you want to get into, ask yourself:
"in the future, do you think we will have that?"
and if the answer is yes, "how can you make that happen sooner?"
But if it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.
And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed for failure in the 21st century.
If you think of a niche you want to get into, ask yourself:
"in the future, do you think we will have that?"
and if the answer is yes, "how can you make that happen sooner?"
But if it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.
And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed for failure in the 21st century.
WORK :
70-80% of JOBS will disappear in the next 20 years.
There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear whether there will be enough new jobs in such a short time.
70-80% of JOBS will disappear in the next 20 years.
There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear whether there will be enough new jobs in such a short time.
AGRICULTURE :
There will be a $100 AGRICULTURAL ROBOT in the future.
Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers instead of working all day in their field.
There will be a $100 AGRICULTURAL ROBOT in the future.
Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers instead of working all day in their field.
AEROPONICS will need much less water.
The first petri dish produced VEAL is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018.
Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
The first petri dish produced VEAL is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018.
Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
There are several STARTUPS which will bring INSECT PROTEIN into the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "ALTERNATIVE PROTEIN SOURCE" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "MOODIES" which can predict in which mood you are.
By 2020 there will be APPS that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying.
Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.
BITCOIN will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.
LONGEVITY :
Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year.
Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years.
The increase itself is getting bigger and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year.
So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year.
Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years.
The increase itself is getting bigger and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year.
So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
EDUCATION :
The cheapest smartphones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia.
By 2020, 70% of all human will own a smartphone.
ThIs means that every child across the world will have the same access to world class education which is available online to children in First World countries.
The cheapest smartphones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia.
By 2020, 70% of all human will own a smartphone.
ThIs means that every child across the world will have the same access to world class education which is available online to children in First World countries.
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